San Diego County adds hospitalization forecasts to respiratory report as flu rises

San Diego County revised its Respiratory Virus Surveillance Report to include hospital‑admission forecasts and resume weekly reporting as flu season begins, the county said.

Current county data show an unusually early rise in seasonal flu activity; test positivity has increased to 8.0% with 58 hospitalizations and eight deaths reported, the county said. County Public Health Officer Sayone Thihalolipavan, MD, MPH urged residents who have not yet been vaccinated to get the flu shot now; “It is vital that if you haven’t gotten the flu shot or if you’ve been thinking about it to make the appointment or walk in as soon as possible,” she said. “The vaccine looks like it will be highly effective against the strain of flu now circulating.”

The new report tracks test positivity and emergency department visits for COVID‑19, influenza and RSV and places simple graphics at the top for a quick snapshot, the county said. It also includes two‑week forecasts for projected hospitalizations to help hospitals and health partners prepare for potential surges; the county partnered with University of California San Diego researchers at the Resilient Shield project, funded by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to build the forecasting tools.

The Resilient Shield model uses local hospitalization data and can predict COVID, influenza and RSV hospitalizations in the coming week, Seema Shah, MD, MPH, the county’s Medical Director of Epidemiology and Immunization Services, said; “The new forecasting feature represents another advance for public health and reflects the strength of this collaboration,” she said. The county said the report is available by subscription as a downloadable PDF and that vaccines are available through health care providers or county public health clinics for uninsured residents.

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