Democrat leads Republican 61% to 37% among likely voters in the race for governor, and support for Proposition 40, the billionaire wealth tax, has slipped below a majority, according to a Public Policy Institute of California survey released Oct. 27, a week before Election Day.
Becerra’s 24-point lead includes a 13-point lead among independent likely voters, PPIC said. Satisfaction with the choices for governor varies by age: nearly 70% of likely voters 55 and older say they are pleased with their choices, compared with half of voters ages 18 to 34.
Forty-six percent of likely voters say they will vote yes on Proposition 40, a citizens’ initiative that would impose a one-time 5% tax on taxpayers with assets over $1 billion. Last month, 52% of likely voters said they would support it.
“Since last month, we’ve seen declining support for Prop 40, particularly among Democrats and independents,” said Mark Baldassare, director of the PPIC Statewide Survey. “Propositions 41 and 42, which could effectively nullify Prop 40 even if it was passed, are now polling better than the billionaire tax.”
A majority of likely voters back Proposition 3, which would make a temporary marginal income tax on high earners permanent. Among Democrats, 80% support Proposition 3, while 64% support the billionaire wealth tax, the survey found.
The survey describes an unusually pessimistic electorate. Eighty-two percent of adult Californians think things in the United States are generally going in the wrong direction, the highest share since PPIC began asking about the national outlook two decades ago. Nearly eight in 10 expect bad economic conditions in both the state and the nation over the next 12 months, a level PPIC said has not been matched since the depths of the pandemic and the Great Recession.
“If you’re looking for one word to describe Californians’ mood as they are filling out their ballots, it would be gloomy,” Baldassare said. “Affordability continues to be a central concern, with majorities across demographic groups saying their incomes are not keeping up with inflation.”
Seventy-eight percent of California adults disapprove of the way is handling his job as president, his highest disapproval rating among Californians across his two terms, according to PPIC. His approval among independents fell from 25% in February to 16% in October.
Democrats are far more energized about the congressional races. Seventy-one percent of Democratic likely voters say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in congressional elections, compared with 46% of Republicans, a partisan gap PPIC said is larger than it was ahead of the 2024 general election.
On the rest of the ballot, majorities of likely voters back all three borrowing measures. At least 60% support Propositions 1 and 37, which would authorize tens of billions of dollars in bonds for housing programs, and 57% say they will vote yes on Proposition 38, which would authorize $8.4 billion in bonds for immunology research. A majority also support Proposition 2, which increases the amount of revenue the state can deposit into its rainy day fund.
A majority oppose Proposition 43, which would make it more difficult to increase local taxes. Proposition 45, which would modify the state’s marquee environmental law to speed construction of some new developments, trails narrowly, with 50% opposed and 46% in favor.
Nearly 60% of likely voters oppose Proposition 39, a citizens’ initiative that would require government-issued ID at the polls. Sixty-three percent of likely voters say they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the way votes are cast and counted in California.
PPIC interviewed 1,728 California adults from Oct. 16 to 22. The sampling error is plus or minus 3.0 percent for the full sample and plus or minus 3.8 percent for the 1,086 likely voters, at the 95 percent confidence level. The survey is funded by the Arjay R. and Frances F. Miller Foundation, and PPIC says it does not take positions on ballot measures or endorse candidates. The full report, with crosstabs and time trends, is posted on PPIC’s website.
State
Xavier Becerra
Democratic nominee for Governor of California · Democrat
Named 3 times in this story.
Portrait: United States Department of Health and Human Services / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)
State
Steve Hilton
Republican nominee for Governor of California · Republican
Named 2 times in this story.
Portrait: Gage Skidmore / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0)
Federal
Donald J. Trump
President of the United States · Republican
Named once in this story.
Portrait: Daniel Torok / The White House (public domain)
Sources & methodology
This report was written from the primary materials below. Links open at the original publisher.
Public Policy Institute of California, PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government (October 2026)See something we should correct? Read our corrections policy.